Germany’s Election Chaos: A Fragmented Vote

Germany is heading into a pivotal election on February 23rd after months of political turmoil. The collapse of Olaf Scholz’s three-party coalition in November triggered an early vote, and the campaign took a dramatic turn in January when Friedrich Merz, leader of the opposition Christian Democrats (CDU), pushed anti-immigration motions through the Bundestag with the support of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). For many, including the hundreds of thousands who protested in the streets, this move shattered a long-standing political taboo against cooperating with extremists.

Stability in the Polls, But Not in Parliament

Despite the uproar, the polls have remained largely unchanged. Apart from Die Linke ("The Left"), which is experiencing a last-minute surge—perhaps as a backlash to Mr. Merz’s maneuver—every party sits within two percentage points of its standing a year ago. Barring an unprecedented polling error, the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), are set for a clear victory. That puts Mr. Merz on course to become Germany’s next chancellor, likely by April or May, once he assembles a coalition.

The AfD, meanwhile, is projected to secure around 20% of the vote—enough to double its seat count. Yet it remains politically isolated by the “firewall” other parties maintain against it, ensuring it stays out of government.

But winning the election is just the first hurdle for Mr. Merz. Germany’s complex electoral system, combined with the anti-AfD blockade and a fragmented vote, has created a scenario where small shifts could have huge consequences for coalition-building.

A Parliament With Four, Five, Six—or Seven Parties?

Germany’s Bundestag has a 5% threshold for parties to enter parliament. Currently, three parties hover around that cutoff:

• The Free Democrats (FDP), a pro-business party expelled from government by Mr. Scholz in November
• The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a left-conservative, pro-Russia breakaway from Die Linke
• Die Linke itself, which is enjoying a late-stage boost

Depending on how these smaller parties perform, the Bundestag could consist of anywhere from four to seven parties. The more that qualify, the harder it becomes for the CDU/CSU to form a stable coalition.

For Mr. Merz, the stakes are high. If none of the three minor parties makes it—an unlikely scenario given Die Linke’s surge—he would almost certainly have the option of forming a government with either Mr. Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) or the Greens. Our election model gives this relatively easy outcome a 22% probability.

If five parties enter parliament, his only feasible two-party coalition may be with the SPD. But if six parties qualify, the likelihood of needing a three-way coalition rises sharply. And if all three smaller parties clear the threshold, a two-party government becomes virtually impossible.

With so many variables at play, tactical voting to influence the final outcome becomes incredibly difficult. “It’s like playing 3D chess,” says Frieder Schmid of polling firm YouGov.

The Growing Risk of a Messy Coalition

Recent polling trends are narrowing Mr. Merz’s options. The Die Linke surge, coupled with a smaller boost for the FDP, is making a straightforward coalition harder to achieve. Our model now shows a 37% and rising chance that neither a CDU/CSU-SPD “grand coalition” nor a CDU/CSU-Green alliance will secure a majority. With the AfD off-limits, this would leave Mr. Merz needing two additional partners.

That could mean a Kenya coalition (CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens) or an alternative involving the FDP—assuming it qualifies. The CDU/CSU also refuses to work with Die Linke or the BSW, further limiting its choices. A narrow two-party majority, if possible, might also prove unstable.

“If that happens,” sighs a CDU official, “we’re dead.”

A three-way coalition would be a logistical and ideological nightmare for Mr. Merz, undermining his hopes of restoring stability to German governance and reassuring the country’s European partners. Voters are already wary after the endless infighting of Mr. Scholz’s SPD-Green-FDP “traffic-light” coalition. Many also fear that such an arrangement would leave the AfD as the sole meaningful opposition party, giving it an even stronger foothold. A third concern is that a divided parliament could allow a one-third “blocking minority”, preventing constitutional reforms such as relaxing Germany’s rigid debt brake.

A Chilly Reception for the Next Chancellor

Whoever leads Germany after the election will face deep skepticism from the public. According to Thorsten Faas, a political scientist at Berlin’s Free University, this is the first German election on record in which every leading candidate has a negative approval rating.

Only 25% of Germans say they are satisfied with Mr. Merz. His party, which once harbored hopes of an outright majority, is now on track for its second-worst result in history. The SPD—his likeliest, and the public’s preferred, coalition partner—is set to record its worst-ever performance.

The broader backdrop is one of discontent. A stagnant economy, a series of deadly attacks by asylum-seekers, and global uncertainty fueled by Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House have deepened national unease. The outcome of the election is uncertain, but one thing is clear:

There will be no honeymoon for Friedrich Merz.