Donald Trump’s World Order: Might, Money, and Manipulation

The post-1945 global order is unraveling at an alarming pace, and Donald Trump is at the helm of this transformation, steering America into a might-is-right world. In an unprecedented display at the United Nations this week, the United States aligned itself with Russia and North Korea against Ukraine and its European allies. Friedrich Merz, Germany’s likely next chancellor, has even warned that NATO may not survive beyond June. Trump and his allies insist that their transactional approach to geopolitics will bring stability and prosperity, ending what they see as 80 years of America being taken advantage of. Yet, rather than strengthening America, this new order threatens to make the world more chaotic and the U.S. weaker and poorer.

A Don Corleone Approach to Diplomacy

The Trump administration has adopted a hard-nosed, mafia-style playbook, particularly in Ukraine. Initially demanding $500 billion, American negotiators settled for an ambiguous agreement on a joint state fund to develop Ukraine’s mineral wealth. Whether the U.S. will offer security guarantees in return remains unclear.

At the core of this strategy is the belief that America has been exploited under the traditional system of alliances and trade agreements. Trump, a self-styled master dealmaker, sees diplomacy as a series of high-stakes transactions where everything is up for grabs—from territory and technology to resources and political influence. On February 24th, after meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron, Trump declared, “My whole life is deals,” signaling his intent to reshape international relations through aggressive bargaining.

Trump's confidants, many with business backgrounds rather than diplomatic experience, are actively brokering deals across the globe. Figures like real estate developer Steve Witkoff are traveling between capitals, forging alliances that interconnect seemingly unrelated goals—from securing Saudi recognition of Israel to easing Russia’s diplomatic isolation.

A New Global Hierarchy Emerges

Trump’s world order envisions a hierarchy where the U.S. reigns supreme, while resource-rich and authoritarian states hold privileged positions. In this system:

• Vladimir Putin seeks to restore Russia’s imperial power.

• Muhammad bin Salman aims to modernize the Middle East while countering Iran.

• Xi Jinping, both a communist and nationalist, pursues a world order that cements China’s strength.

America’s traditional allies, meanwhile, are seen as dependents whose loyalty is ripe for exploitation rather than as partners in a shared vision of stability.

This framework has already destabilized international norms. Trump has hinted at redrawing Ukraine’s borders through a simple handshake with Putin. The Middle East’s borders have become increasingly fluid after 17 months of war, and Trump has even expressed interest in acquiring territories such as Gaza and Greenland. If Xi Jinping were to negotiate with Trump, he might demand territorial concessions on Taiwan, the South China Sea, or the Himalayas in exchange for economic compromises.

From Trade to Statecraft: A Dangerous Merger

Trump's vision extends beyond political realignment; he is blurring the lines between business and statecraft. His administration’s negotiations include an eclectic mix of topics: oil production, construction contracts, sanctions relief, Intel semiconductor plants, Starlink satellite services, and even desert golf tournaments.

This signals a retreat from the post-1945 principle that trade is best governed by neutral rules. Instead, it is being reshaped into a battlefield where power dictates outcomes. Such a system inherently favors authoritarian regimes that thrive on corruption and personal dealings over democratic nations that rely on institutional stability.

The Illusion of America First

Trump and his supporters argue that this chaotic restructuring is necessary for America’s benefit. They are not entirely wrong in noting that the old order had decayed, as seen in diplomatic stagnation and economic inequalities. Deals like the Abraham Accords—which established diplomatic ties between Israel and several Arab states—demonstrate that unconventional diplomacy can sometimes yield results.

However, using dealmaking as the organizing principle of global affairs is perilous. The complexities are immense:

• Saudi Arabia wants a U.S. defense pact against Iran, which America might offer if Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel.

• Yet, this requires Israeli-Palestinian agreement on a two-state solution, something Trump has opposed.

• Russia wants oil sanctions lifted, but that could weaken Saudi revenues and raise energy costs for India.

In such an environment, where borders and alliances are endlessly negotiable, conflicts are inevitable. Even regional powers like India may feel increasingly insecure. Moreover, because Trump sees power as personal rather than institutional, he may struggle to persuade counterparts that his agreements will endure—a stark contrast to the legacy of statesmen like Henry Kissinger.

A Weakened America in a Lawless World

Trump fails to recognize that America itself will suffer in this new reality. While the U.S. has shouldered military and trade burdens under the old order, it has also reaped substantial benefits:

• Trade enriches consumers and industries.

• The dollar’s global dominance saves the U.S. over $100 billion annually in interest payments.

• American firms thrive abroad under predictable trade laws, with their foreign operations valued at $16 trillion.

By prioritizing short-term deals over strategic stability, Trump risks forfeiting these advantages. His belief that America can abandon Europe and Asia due to its “beautiful ocean” ignores modern threats. Wars today extend into space and cyberspace, making physical distance increasingly irrelevant—as Japan’s 1941 attack on Pearl Harbor painfully demonstrated. Moreover, America relies on its allies for global power projection, from Germany's Ramstein Air Base to Australia’s Pine Gap intelligence hub. In Trump’s transactional world, these alliances may no longer be freely available.

A Reckless Gamble

Trump’s approach assumes that America can always out-negotiate its way to success. However, as he exploits longstanding alliances for leverage, that very leverage will erode. Betrayed allies will turn to each other for security, diminishing U.S. influence. If global disorder spreads, America will face new threats while wielding fewer diplomatic tools—potentially leading to nuclear arms races in Asia or the collapse of key arms-control treaties.

At a time when stability is crucial, trust, credibility, and clear rules matter more than short-term gains. Congress, financial markets, or voters may yet pressure Trump to reconsider. But the world is already bracing for an era where American leadership is no longer an anchor of stability but a source of uncertainty.