How Vladimir Putin Plans to Leverage a Trump Presidency

For years, the mainstream media and the Washington establishment have underestimated Vladimir Putin’s ability to navigate geopolitical waters. As the West grapples with its own internal divisions and costly entanglements, the Russian president continues to play a long game, eyeing opportunities to advance Russian interests. With Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House, the Kremlin sees an opening—though not in the way the media often portrays it. While liberals frame this as “Putin playing Trump,” the reality is that the former president is a skilled negotiator who prioritizes American interests first.

At the center of this dynamic is the ongoing war in Ukraine. Despite breathless claims that Russia is close to victory, the war has proven far more costly and complex than Putin initially expected. His strategic objectives remain ambiguous, and while he has kept his government and people in the dark about long-term plans, one thing is certain: he is keenly aware that his fortunes are partially tied to external factors, including U.S. politics. On February 18th, formal negotiations between the Trump team and Russian officials commenced in Saudi Arabia, signaling the first serious discussions in years.

Trump’s approach remains fluid, with potential outcomes ranging from cutting off aid to Ukraine to pressuring NATO allies to take on more responsibility. Unlike the Biden administration’s blank-check strategy, Trump is prioritizing an America-first approach, questioning the wisdom of endless funding without a clear strategy. His meeting with Russian officials in Riyadh underscored his pragmatic view: he wants an end to the war, not an indefinite commitment to a conflict that drains American resources and benefits the military-industrial complex.

For Putin, open-ended negotiations provide an opportunity. The Russian leader thrives on uncertainty and projects strength even when his hand is weak. He understands that while the U.S. is bogged down in domestic debates and European allies struggle with military readiness, Russia can continue its war of attrition. However, the reality on the battlefield is far from the rosy picture Russian propaganda paints. Despite Russia’s slow territorial gains, its military has suffered significant losses. British sources estimate that Russia now controls 19.2% of Ukraine—barely different from its position in April 2022—while Russian casualties have ballooned to 800,000. Western officials suggest both armies are locked in a grinding battle with little hope of a decisive victory.

Militarily, Russia is burning through its Soviet-era stockpiles at an alarming rate. More than half of its 7,300 stored tanks are gone, and those that remain are of questionable quality. By April, Russia may run out of its T-80 tanks altogether. Artillery losses have doubled compared to previous years, and recruitment efforts are becoming increasingly expensive. Public sentiment in Russia leans toward ending the war, adding pressure on Putin’s administration.

Economically, Russia has managed to weather Western sanctions better than expected, but cracks are emerging. Inflation is soaring into the double digits, interest rates have hit 21%, and labor shortages are chronic. The Kremlin has been forced to divert enormous resources to the war effort, fueling inflation and draining its sovereign wealth fund. Former Russian finance minister Mikhail Zadornov warns that liquid assets have fallen below 2% of GDP, a dangerous sign for long-term stability. Sanctions, coupled with falling commodity prices, have led to a 20% drop in Russian exports year-over-year. While the Biden administration has used sanctions as a blunt instrument, Trump could leverage economic pressure more effectively by using targeted measures to extract concessions from Moscow.

Given these vulnerabilities, some argue that now is the worst time for the U.S. to consider concessions to Russia. Western strategists believe that by maintaining sanctions and allowing Ukraine to rebuild, Russia’s capacity for aggression could be further limited. However, Trump’s focus is on delivering a pragmatic resolution, not engaging in an endless ideological struggle against Moscow. As one American official put it, “We are finally getting Putin into the position where we wanted him to be for three years. It would be a terrible shame to let him escape now.”

Putin, for his part, understands Trump’s impatience and sees opportunities to influence the negotiations. Recently, he released Marc Fogel, an American detained in Russia since 2021, as a gesture of goodwill. However, his core demands remain unchanged: a neutral Ukraine, limitations on Ukrainian military capabilities, and Western recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea and other annexed regions. Most crucially, Putin wants an agreement that permanently lifts Western sanctions and allows Russia to rebuild its economy and military without interference.

Even if the immediate conflict ends, Putin’s ambitions extend beyond Ukraine. His long-term goal is to reassert Russian influence in Europe and weaken the American-led post-World War II order. He has openly declared that the “Euro-Atlantic security system is collapsing” and sees Western Europe as a declining power. His strategy involves cultivating political allies among right-wing European parties skeptical of U.S. interventionism—sentiments echoed recently by Vice President J.D. Vance at the Munich Security Conference.

Despite Putin’s maneuvering, internal Russian dynamics pose challenges for him. While war profiteers within the Russian elite benefit from continued conflict, moderates—including business leaders and technocrats—see an opportunity in Trump’s diplomacy. These factions believe that de-escalating tensions with the West could stabilize Russia’s economy and improve its long-term security. However, Putin must also contend with nationalist hardliners who view any concession as betrayal. The balance of power within the Kremlin remains delicate.

Trump’s instincts to end the war align with broader American interests. A well-negotiated ceasefire could allow Ukraine to rebuild, strengthen European defense commitments, and maintain strategic pressure on Russia’s struggling economy. While critics accuse Trump of being too willing to deal with Moscow, his track record shows that he prioritizes American strength. Under his administration, NATO members increased their defense spending, Russia was deterred from major aggression, and energy policies weakened Moscow’s economic leverage.

Ultimately, the question is not whether Putin can “play” Trump, but whether Trump can secure a deal that benefits the U.S. and restores stability to the region. By leveraging Russia’s economic and military vulnerabilities while avoiding another prolonged entanglement, Trump has the opportunity to achieve what Biden and his predecessors could not: a real path to peace on America’s terms.