Manpower Crisis: Ukraine’s Desperate Search for Soldiers

Ukraine is facing a growing crisis as its military grapples with a critical shortage of manpower, compounded by increasing tensions on the front lines. Despite a heavy-handed mobilisation campaign, the country is struggling to fill the gaps left by mounting casualties and a steady stream of defections.

For Oleksandr Sikalchuk, a 39-year-old draft officer, a routine assignment ended in tragedy. While escorting a group of conscripts during a midnight stop at a petrol station in Poltava province, Sikalchuk was shot dead by a man with a hunting rifle. The assailant, who escaped with one of the conscripts, was initially thought to be a Russian infiltrator. However, soldiers on the ground suspect the attack may have been driven by local frustrations. “It would be nice to blame Russia,” said Roman Istomin, a colleague of Sikalchuk’s, “but perhaps it’s something far worse.”

These attacks on Ukraine's draft system come at an inopportune time. The Ukrainian armed forces have long been suffering from a manpower shortage, and with Russia regrouping in anticipation of a renewed offensive, the pressure on Ukraine’s military is intensifying. The violence has sparked fears that more civilians may resist or evade conscription, with many choosing to flee rather than face the brutality of war.

In response, Ukraine's draft officers have escalated their tactics, but their increasingly coercive methods are only further inflaming public resentment. These excesses have been widely publicized by Russian social media, which amplifies the growing discontent. According to “Artem”, an officer from the 46th brigade, political constraints have hindered effective mobilisation. In January, his unit was pushed out of Kurakhove, a key stronghold in eastern Ukraine, after running out of soldiers. “Ten Russians to one Ukrainian,” he explained. “We couldn’t hold multiple high-rises with just four soldiers. It wasn’t even close.”

While Ukraine’s 880,000-strong military may appear to outnumber Russia’s 720,000 troops—including reserves and security forces—the raw numbers do not reflect the full picture. On the front lines, where the fighting is most intense, Russia has a critical advantage. The Russian military is able to replace its losses far more quickly, often using the threat of punishment to force soldiers to march forward. In 2024, Russia was able to add 430,000 new recruits without resorting to general mobilisation. Even after suffering heavy casualties, its forces continue to grow. A senior Ukrainian official estimates that at least 1 million Russian soldiers are directly involved in the conflict, factoring in reserve units and other military personnel.

Faced with this manpower imbalance, Ukraine has few options left. One possibility under discussion is lowering the mobilisation age from 25 to 18, though the proposal is highly unpopular among both the public and military leaders. Artem, from the 46th brigade, is wary of the plan. “Many fathers are fighting precisely so their sons don’t have to,” he said. Western advisers have strongly pushed the idea, arguing it would rapidly bolster Ukraine's combat strength. However, President Volodymyr Zelensky and his advisers appear unconvinced, with some preferring to focus on acquiring more modern weapons and better protection instead. “What Ukraine needs is newer weapons and stronger defenses,” one aide remarked.

Nonetheless, even Zelensky's officials acknowledge that the country will have to expand its mobilisation efforts if it hopes to continue the fight. Officially, the government is prioritising the war effort above all else. Unofficially, there is a delicate balancing act underway, as the government seeks to sustain the war effort while preventing the economy from collapsing. For example, the government currently shields nearly 1 million “critical workers” from conscription, but this policy has led to contradictions. Workers in some sectors—such as well-known perfume chains—are exempt, while others, such as those building drones, are not. One European official explained: “Zelensky is trying to have it both ways, but he may need to risk his economy more if he is to have a country at all.”

In a bid to increase voluntary recruitment, Zelensky has introduced a new program targeting young adults aged 18 to 24. This scheme mirrors Russia's approach in some respects, offering large sign-up bonuses, competitive pay, and a one-year commitment. However, Ukrainian officials are adamant that these recruits will not be “cannon fodder.” Instead, they will undergo extensive training in one of Ukraine’s elite brigades. The goal is to recruit 4,000 young soldiers per month, a significant boost to Ukraine’s manpower. Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former defense minister, argues that Ukraine must also adapt its military strategy, focusing on more efficient tactics that require fewer troops. “We cannot win if we continue to play Russia’s attrition game,” he warned.

With the conflict showing no signs of easing, Donald Trump’s potential impact on the war remains uncertain. As his second term progresses, there is speculation that he may broker a ceasefire or push for a new settlement—though as of now, it seems more likely that the war will continue. If that happens, Ukraine’s mobilisation efforts will likely need to intensify even further. “The tightening will continue,” said the senior Ukrainian official. “Because no one has come up with a better solution.” This looming pressure risks deepening divisions within Ukrainian society, and could lead to even more violence against draft officers in the weeks to come.