China’s Next Move: A Military Role in Ukraine?

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine three years ago, China has remained a steadfast supporter of its northern neighbor while largely sidelining Ukraine. Despite claiming neutrality, Beijing has significantly aided Moscow—purchasing Russian oil and gas and supplying technology with potential military applications. Now, as the United States and Russia begin tentative discussions on ending the war, China sees an opportunity to reposition itself as a key diplomatic player.

Despite its deep ties with the aggressor, Beijing hopes its involvement in peace efforts will bolster its global image as a responsible great power.

China’s Calculated Diplomacy

On February 20th, at a G20 foreign ministers' meeting in South Africa, China's top diplomat, Wang Yi, spoke of a “window of opportunity for peace” in Ukraine. “China will continue playing a constructive role in the political settlement of the crisis,” he declared. However, for now, Beijing remains on the sidelines. Two days earlier, when U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met in Saudi Arabia, no Chinese representatives were present. Neither side mentioned any role for China in peace negotiations.

Among Chinese commentators, there is speculation about a potential "reverse Nixon" moment—a reference to President Richard Nixon’s 1972 visit to China, which realigned Cold War alliances against the Soviet Union. Some fear that Russia and the U.S. might unexpectedly cooperate against China. But such concerns are largely unfounded. Instead, China appears to be capitalizing on political shifts as former U.S. President Donald Trump disrupts Washington’s security commitments to NATO, shifts blame onto Ukraine, and signals significant concessions to Russia. Beijing sees an opportunity to mend its strained relations with Europe by presenting itself as a more stabilizing force.

China’s Growing Appeal in Europe

China's diplomatic posturing gained traction at the Munich Security Conference on February 14th. While the world expected strong U.S. leadership on Ukraine, Vice President J.D. Vance shocked attendees by largely ignoring the war. “The threat that I worry the most about vis-à-vis Europe is not Russia, it’s not China… what I worry about is the threat from within,” he stated, referring to efforts to suppress hard-right political views.

His remarks were followed by Wang Yi, who seized the moment to deliver a veiled critique of American foreign policy: “The world today is witnessing incessant chaos and confusion, and one important reason is that some countries believe might makes right and have opened a Pandora’s box marked ‘the law of the jungle.’” The contrast in rhetoric was striking. As one European delegate, Steven Everts of the EU Institute for Security Studies, observed, "Such is the world today that some Europeans found that reasonable in comparison.”

China is seeking propaganda victories where it can. Shortly after Russia’s invasion, President Xi Jinping launched a "Global Security Initiative," branding China as a peacemaker. In 2023, Beijing released a 12-point peace plan for Ukraine, though it lacked concrete steps for ending the conflict and failed to gain traction. However, there are signs that Ukraine may want China to play a more active role. Following a meeting between Chinese and Ukrainian foreign ministers at the Munich conference, the chief of staff to President Volodymyr Zelensky called China "a global player" with a "crucial role" in securing peace.

Could Chinese Troops Enter Europe?

Despite its diplomatic overtures, Beijing remains cautious. It has not formally recognized Russia’s territorial claims in Ukraine, but it also avoids any stance that would openly contradict Moscow. When President Xi spoke with Vladimir Putin on February 24th, he reaffirmed that the two countries were “true friends.” At the same time, China is wary of further damaging relations with the U.S.

Zhou Bo, a former senior colonel in China’s armed forces and now a scholar at Tsinghua University, has suggested that Chinese troops could participate in a UN-mandated peacekeeping mission in Ukraine if one is established. However, Beijing is unlikely to act until a ceasefire is firmly in place, and even then, European governments may resist the idea of Chinese military forces on the continent.

China’s Eyes on Economic Gains

If a durable peace agreement emerges, China will likely shift focus to Ukraine’s reconstruction. According to Helena Legarda of the Mercator Institute for Chinese Studies, Chinese companies will be eager to secure lucrative post-war contracts. "I think they see this as a potential way out of the difficult position they put themselves in by supporting Russia," she explains.

President Zelensky appears receptive to such prospects. Speaking at a press conference in Kyiv on February 23rd, he extended an open invitation to foreign investors—including Chinese firms—to participate in Ukraine’s rebuilding efforts. For Beijing, the calculus is simple: it loses nothing by waiting.