How Europe Must Adapt to a Changing Global Order

The past week has been a wake-up call for Europe. The old order is shifting, and the continent can no longer rely on outdated assumptions about its security and global influence. Ukraine is on the brink, Russia is asserting its interests, and America—under Donald Trump’s leadership—is redefining its role in global affairs. Instead of panicking or clinging to the past, Europe must recognize reality and take responsibility for its own security and prosperity.

Speaking in Munich, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance made it clear that Europe’s current approach is unsustainable. He pointed out that Europe, despite its rich history and cultural legacy, has allowed itself to become dependent on American military support while prioritizing social welfare over defense. As a result, European leaders now find themselves on the sidelines as the U.S. and Russia engage in direct negotiations, officially beginning in Riyadh on February 18th. This is not merely an issue of diplomatic snubs—Europe must acknowledge that its security requires action, not just rhetoric.

President Trump has taken a pragmatic stance on Ukraine, calling for a reassessment of U.S. involvement rather than endless financial and military commitments. His concerns about President Volodymyr Zelensky’s leadership and the ongoing costs of the conflict reflect legitimate questions that Europe itself must answer. Should the West continue funding an open-ended war, or should it push for a ceasefire that acknowledges geopolitical realities? A deal that limits Ukraine’s ability to rearm may not be ideal, but it reflects the broader shift in U.S. priorities.

The greater issue, however, extends beyond Ukraine. Trump understands that isolating Russia indefinitely is neither realistic nor beneficial to global stability. Rather than clinging to Cold War-era policies, he is pursuing a strategic approach that acknowledges Russia’s place in the world. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has pointed to potential economic and diplomatic opportunities, signaling a shift toward engagement rather than perpetual hostility. Europe should not react with fear but with strategic thinking about how to position itself in this new dynamic.

Trump’s willingness to reevaluate NATO commitments has sent shockwaves through European capitals. However, this should not be viewed as a betrayal, but as a challenge. For too long, Europe has relied on American military might without pulling its own weight. Trump is simply demanding what previous U.S. presidents have hinted at—Europe must take responsibility for its own defense. The era of American blank checks is over.

Europe must now confront the truth: it is a continent with an aging population, stagnant economic growth, and inadequate military capabilities. The global landscape is shifting, and trade rules, border policies, and defense strategies are being rewritten. If Russia were to test NATO’s resolve—whether through military action in the Baltics or hybrid warfare tactics—what is Europe’s response? So far, the reaction has been disorganized. A hastily convened meeting in Paris on February 17th only highlighted internal divisions. Three years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Europe has failed to meaningfully increase military spending or adopt a strategy suited to today’s world.

The solution is clear: Europe must step up. First, it must develop a coherent diplomatic strategy, led by a single envoy capable of negotiating with Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S. Economic measures should be strengthened—Europe should exploit the €210bn ($220bn) of Russian assets frozen in European banks to support Ukraine’s defense, even if Washington eases sanctions.

More importantly, Europe needs a massive defense overhaul. If it can no longer rely on automatic U.S. military support, it must develop its own capabilities, including heavy-lift aircraft, logistics, and intelligence infrastructure. Discussions must begin on how Britain and France’s nuclear deterrents can be integrated into a broader European defense strategy. This will require defense spending to rise to Cold War levels—4-5% of GDP—ensuring that Europe can stand on its own militarily.

Such a transformation will demand fiscal reforms. An additional €300bn annually must be found to fund defense expansion. This means tough choices: Europe must reduce its bloated welfare spending, streamline regulations, and remove barriers to economic growth. Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel once noted that Europe accounted for 7% of the world’s population, 25% of its GDP, but 50% of its social spending. That imbalance is no longer sustainable.

A New Vision for Europe

The changes demanded by today’s geopolitical realities go beyond military spending. Europe’s bureaucratic, process-heavy governance slows decision-making and prevents it from acting effectively. The EU, NATO, and other multilateral frameworks must be reformed to ensure that key players like Britain have a seat at the table while preventing obstruction by nations that are unwilling to commit to European defense.

While some may view Trump’s approach as disruptive, it presents an opportunity for Europe to redefine itself. NATO has been a pillar of stability for decades, but alliances must evolve to remain relevant. The world is entering a new era, and Europe must adapt before it is left behind.