Can Europe Survive Four More Years of a Trumpian Assault?

Between the American election in November and Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20th, Europe buzzed with speculation on how to “Trump-proof” itself. In hindsight, that notion seems almost naive. In lengthy reports and somber discussions, officials painstakingly strategized on how to ensure that Trump’s “Make America Great Again” slogan didn’t come at Europe’s expense. Unfortunately, the plans devised in Paris, Berlin, and Brussels have proven ineffective. Rather than the expected complaints about trade surpluses or Europe’s sluggish defense spending, the reality has been more dramatic: from Trump’s obsession with Greenland to America’s shady dealings with Ukraine over its mineral resources, to diplomatic handshakes with Russia’s top brass and public support for a German party with Nazi-leaning members. There are still 47 months of this to endure.

Europe’s power brokers had hoped that a meeting with Trump’s new team at the Munich Security Conference on February 14th would ease tensions. Instead, it deepened them. J.D. Vance, the U.S. vice-president, turned what could have been a speech on strengthening alliances in the face of Russian aggression into a diatribe against Europe’s “flawed” way of life. He railed against Europe for stifling free speech, mishandling migration, and “censoring” nationalist voices. Europeans had spent the past three years preoccupied with the fate of Ukraine and the looming threat from Russia, but for Vance, Europe’s true danger lay "from within." He said, "What I worry about most regarding Europe is not Russia, not China, not any external threat. It’s the internal collapse of your values." What?

The reaction to Vance’s speech ranged from bewilderment to outright outrage, followed by a rising sense of panic. It wasn’t just the bruised European pride of being lectured by someone with the imperial tone once used to scold colonies. It was the dawning realization that their security might no longer be guaranteed by the United States. Vance’s comments were especially alarming when you consider that he had previously suggested that America might drop support for NATO if Europe took action against certain platforms—like X (formerly Twitter)—which is owned by Elon Musk, a key Trump ally. If that was a warning shot, Vance’s Munich speech felt like a direct assault on the very foundations of the transatlantic relationship.

But Vance’s tirade didn’t land as an insightful critique from a well-meaning ally—it was riddled with inaccuracies, as if pulled from the darker corners of the internet. Europe may have stricter laws on free speech than America, but those regulations primarily target harmful content, such as terrorist material, sexual violence, and Russian disinformation—issues on which even liberals agree action is necessary. His claim that Europe was “censoring” nationalist politicians also rings hollow, considering that hard-right parties like the Alternative for Germany (AfD) have significant support and are gaining political ground. (Just two days after Vance’s speech, AfD leader Alice Weidel participated in a live debate, hardly an example of censorship.)

Moreover, while some mainstream political parties misjudged public sentiment on immigration, they’ve faced electoral consequences for it, proving that European democracies remain responsive to their citizens. As for the notion that European governments are undemocratic for excluding extreme nationalists from coalitions, it seems rich coming from a U.S. vice-president whose party is openly hostile to any cooperation with Democrats, despite the latter's significant popular mandate.

Vance’s focus on free speech also struck as tone-deaf, given the ongoing U.S. government’s attempts to restrict press access, like the recent incident where the Trump administration banned the Associated Press from covering a White House event. Vance’s most convincing moment, however, came when he questioned Romania’s annulment of a November election, which saw a populist candidate suspected of Russian backing win the first round. But given his own repeated embrace of the baseless Trumpian narrative that the 2020 U.S. election was “stolen,” his credibility here was hardly reassuring.

A Worrying Tone: "EU Commissars"

One remark by Vance, in particular, has caused a stir in Brussels. By referring to "EU commissars," Vance tapped into a deeper MAGA resentment toward the European Union. This is perhaps unsurprising. The EU oversees trade relations for its 27 member states and enforces many of the policies that irk Trump supporters, including regulations on social media. The Biden administration has worked closely with the European Commission on key issues like Russian sanctions, providing Brussels with additional leverage. However, if the Trump administration chooses to isolate the EU, it could have long-lasting effects on how Europe operates in the international sphere.

Leading up to the Munich conference, many Europeans feared being sidelined by their most important ally. They hoped that Vance and others in the Trump administration might allow Europe a more active role in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. But now, the question isn’t just about how to manage relations with Russia. The real dilemma is how Europe should deal with the United States.