Taiwan’s Growing Isolation: How China is Winning the Diplomatic Battle

Over the past few weeks, the Trump administration has launched a whirlwind of foreign policy maneuvers, from imposing tariffs and slashing international aid to reengaging with Vladimir Putin on Ukraine and reviving “maximum pressure” on Iran. Yet America’s most significant long-term challenge remains China. As the U.S. navigates political upheaval—marked by the 2024 election turmoil and Donald Trump’s chaotic return to office—China has been steadily advancing its own strategic objectives.

Almost unnoticed, Beijing has achieved a major diplomatic victory, shifting global sentiment against Taiwan. Most countries, including Western ones, recognize China over Taiwan. Until recently, many maintained a neutral stance or supported a peaceful resolution of the sovereignty dispute. However, over the past 18 months, a growing number of nations in the Global South have embraced a far stronger pro-China position. The Economist estimates that 70 countries now explicitly support "all" efforts by China to unify Taiwan with the mainland.

At first glance, this shift in diplomatic language may seem minor. But it carries significant implications. Taiwan remains one of the world’s most dangerous flashpoints, and this new stance provides China with a crucial layer of diplomatic cover should it decide to use force. The Biden administration worked hard to rebuild America’s alliances in Asia, partly to deter Chinese aggression against Taiwan. Yet tensions remain high. On multiple occasions, Joe Biden’s remarks appeared to stray from the U.S. policy of “strategic ambiguity”—a careful balancing act designed to discourage a Chinese attack while avoiding emboldening Taiwan to declare independence. Before the U.S. elections, China conducted military exercises simulating a full-scale blockade of Taiwan, underscoring the island’s precarious position.

Since returning to office, Trump has yet to clarify his Taiwan policy, though he has threatened tariffs on its semiconductor industry—a move that could weaken one of Taiwan’s strongest economic defenses against China. His administration includes both staunch China hawks, like Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and business leaders with deep ties to China, such as Elon Musk. On February 7th, following a meeting between Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru, the two leaders issued an unusually strong statement condemning “any attempts to unilaterally change the status quo by force or coercion.” However, Trump’s past rhetoric suggests he might be open to a deal that sacrifices Taiwan in exchange for economic concessions from Beijing.

A full-scale Chinese invasion of Taiwan remains a possibility. President Xi Jinping has instructed the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to be ready for war by 2027. Alternatively, China could impose a quarantine or inspection regime, strangling Taiwan’s economy without technically committing an act of war.

China’s recent diplomatic offensive appears aimed at minimizing international backlash in either scenario. By securing global endorsements for its position, Beijing may be trying to preemptively weaken U.S.-led sanctions in the event of a Taiwan crisis. The Western embargo on Russia, which lacks United Nations backing, has already proven difficult to enforce worldwide. A similar sanctions regime against China—given its economic influence—would likely face even greater resistance. In parallel, Beijing is accelerating efforts to reduce dependence on foreign technology and food supplies, further insulating itself from potential economic pressure.

Trump’s return to power—and his unpredictable, transactional approach to foreign policy—raises fresh doubts about America’s long-term commitment to its Asian allies. China’s diplomatic coup over Taiwan is a stark reminder that, amid these uncertainties, Beijing is methodically preparing for what comes next.