Mass Deportation: Promise vs. Practicality

Three days into Donald Trump’s presidency, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents raided the Ocean Seafood Gourmet Market and Depot in Newark’s Ironbound district. Workers, including an American citizen, were interrogated, and three arrests were made. It remains unclear whether ICE had a judicial warrant for the operation. This raid marked an early effort in the Trump administration’s highly publicized immigration crackdown. Accompanied by media coverage and high-ranking officials, such raids serve not only as enforcement actions but also as a means of deterrence and political messaging for Trump’s base.

In heavily Democratic cities like Newark, these raids also provoke resistance. “You can’t just arbitrarily detain people,” said Newark Mayor Ras Baraka. “You can’t just walk up to somebody without probable cause.” In response, Baraka sent the city’s lawyer to the seafood market and is working to bolster protections against unexpected and invasive immigration raids.

Can Trump Deliver on His Deportation Pledge?

Trump has vowed to significantly reduce America’s unauthorized immigrant population, which is estimated to be as high as 13 million. However, arresting a handful of people at a time—such as the Newark raid, where two of the three detainees were later released on bond—is unlikely to make a substantial impact. Following Trump’s inauguration, ICE reported daily arrest numbers ranging from 286 to 1,179, with a stated focus on individuals with criminal convictions or pending charges. However, data released on February 14th revealed that 14% of those detained had no criminal history, a 6% increase from prior levels. Even with this expanded scope, maintaining an average of 1,000 arrests per day presents a logistical challenge. Notably, ICE stopped publicly reporting daily arrest numbers in early February, possibly to avoid scrutiny.

The Border and Beyond: Where Are the Arrests Happening?

The majority of immigration-related arrests occur at the border, where enforcement is simpler and less costly. However, the number of unauthorized immigrants crossing into the U.S. has declined. In December, border encounters dropped to their lowest level since 2021, according to Customs and Border Protection data. Migration flows are influenced by factors such as job availability, crises abroad, and deterrence measures—Trump’s strongest enforcement tool. Without a fresh influx of unauthorized migrants at the southern border, the administration faces a strategic dilemma. “I can’t even think where [the Trump administration] would go to net a large cache of unauthorized people,” said Muzaffar Chishti of the Migration Policy Institute.

Enforcing immigration laws within the U.S. presents additional challenges. Without a warrant or consent, ICE agents can only access public areas of private businesses, such as parking lots or lobbies. Identifying unauthorized immigrants in these spaces is complex. “Police can’t enter a random room and search everyone for identification,” explained Michael Kagan, a law professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

Large-Scale Raids: Inefficient and Symbolic?

Mass enforcement operations often yield limited results. The Newark raid is a case in point, but an even more high-profile operation in the Bronx on January 28th was arguably less effective. Despite Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem wearing a bulletproof vest and publicizing the event on social media, ICE made only one arrest—a single undocumented immigrant wanted by authorities in New York.

Detention Capacity and Sanctuary Policies: Key Barriers

One of the most straightforward ways to deport individuals is to remove those already in custody. However, this depends on local law enforcement cooperation. Many Democratic states and cities have enacted “sanctuary” laws that limit collaboration with ICE, a key obstacle that hindered Trump’s first-term efforts and could continue to do so. That said, not all sanctuary cities refuse cooperation. In New York, Mayor Eric Adams granted ICE permission to open an office on Rikers Island, the city’s largest jail.

Even when ICE can access detainees, the system is near capacity. As of February 9th, ICE held 41,169 individuals in detention—just shy of its 41,500-bed limit. The Trump administration has taken steps to expand its reach, notably by revoking temporary deportation protections for approximately 600,000 Venezuelans in the U.S. While these individuals may be easier to locate, large-scale deportations would require significant increases in detention space.

The Guantanamo Plan: A Scalable Solution?

Trump has claimed to have a solution. His administration has issued an executive order expanding migrant detention facilities at Guantanamo Bay, with a designated capacity for up to 30,000 “high-priority criminal aliens.” Several deportation flights from El Paso have already transported detainees there. However, if the administration is serious about its campaign pledge to deport over 10 million people, Guantanamo alone will not suffice. It would require the creation of many more such facilities—something that remains politically and logistically uncertain.

The Bottom Line

Despite the aggressive rhetoric, mass deportation remains more of a talking point than a reality. Enforcement efforts face legal, logistical, and political roadblocks. The administration’s current approach—high-profile raids, increased arrests of non-criminals, and an attempt to expand detention capacity—may not be enough to deliver on Trump’s grand promises. Without a dramatic shift in strategy, mass deportation on the scale Trump envisions is unlikely to materialize.