Europe’s Moment of Strength: Why Supporting Ukraine Is Essential

All wars eventually end, but how they conclude shapes the peace that follows—and determines whether it will endure. As the United States takes the lead in seeking an end to Russia’s war against Ukraine, European leaders must decide: will they demonstrate strength and resolve, or will they relinquish responsibility for their own security?

The dynamics of peace talks will be dictated by the situation on the battlefield. Russia has little incentive to negotiate in good faith if it believes victory is within reach. A stronger Ukraine makes it more likely that Russia will abandon its war of aggression. Even after a settlement is reached, both Ukraine and Europe will remain vulnerable unless they establish credible deterrence. The message is clear: if Europe wants to play a decisive role in shaping the post-war order, it must immediately and significantly increase its military support for Ukraine.

Europe Is Not Weak—It Must Stop Acting Like It

Europe must discard the illusion of its own weakness. NATO’s European members collectively possess a GDP of $23 trillion—ten times that of Russia. Yet, their lack of decisive action has allowed Russia and its impoverished allies to outspend the West by 40% in efforts to destroy Ukraine. This disparity is not due to a lack of resources but a failure of political will.

Despite its expenditures, Russia’s battlefield progress has been meager and costly. In Syria, it has suffered humiliating setbacks. On Ukraine’s front lines, it has failed to dislodge just three brigades from the Kursk region and has sustained over 200,000 casualties while advancing a distance comparable to central London to Heathrow Airport. Over the past year, its “consistent advances” have amounted to minimal territorial gains, paid for at an extraordinary cost of more than 4,000 Russian lives per kilometer.

The Cost of Strength Is Manageable

According to new research from the Tony Blair Institute, an additional $40 billion per year in military aid—just 0.2% of NATO Europe’s GDP—would be sufficient to match Russia’s battlefield resources. Given Russia’s extreme losses and struggling economy, such support would push Moscow toward a choice between military and economic disaster. This is the leverage Europe needs to bring Russia to the negotiating table on terms favorable to Ukraine and the West.

The politics of funding should not obscure the reality of what is at stake. The European Union successfully raised $840 billion in bonds for economic recovery after COVID-19, and even larger sums were mobilized during the global financial crisis. The current security crisis is more severe, yet Europe hesitates. The idea that the necessary resources cannot be found is a self-imposed limitation.

European Security and Ukraine’s Fate Are One and the Same

Supporting Ukraine is not an act of charity; it is a strategic necessity. There is no trade-off between defending Ukraine and defending Europe—they are one and the same. Ukraine is an integral part of Europe’s security architecture, whether or not it is formally part of NATO.

Moreover, the steps required to bolster Ukraine against Russian aggression are the same steps needed to enhance Europe’s own security. In the short term, military capability depends on available hardware. In the long term, it depends on industrial and technological capacity. Investing ambitiously in the defense industry to support Ukraine today will secure all of Europe in the years to come.

Ukraine: A Key Player in Strengthening European Defense

Ukraine itself is poised to play a crucial role in European security. After three years of grueling warfare, it has developed cutting-edge defense technology, particularly in drones, AI, and electronic warfare. It has also demonstrated an unparalleled ability to rapidly scale up traditional defense production—outpacing much of Europe. Directly purchasing materiel from Ukraine’s defense industry, as Denmark has done, is one of the fastest and most cost-effective ways to expand Europe’s defense capabilities.

A Stronger Europe Strengthens NATO—and Its Standing in Washington

Bolstering Europe’s military strength is also the best way to address growing doubts in the United States about NATO’s value. It is entirely reasonable for American taxpayers to ask why they should shoulder more of Europe’s security burden than Europe itself. Washington has sent a clear message: Europe must do more. It is no longer realistic to expect the U.S. to come to Europe’s aid without Europe first demonstrating its own commitment to its defense.

This demands substantial joint financial investments, but just as critically, it requires fostering public understanding of the shifting security landscape. Citizens must recognize the need to defend European values and the rules-based international order.

The Time for Decisive Action Is Now

By acting boldly today, Europe can emerge from this war stronger and more secure than it was in 2022. Failure to act would mean surrendering control over its own security and its own future. For European leaders, the choice should be obvious: strength over passivity, unity over hesitation, and security over short-term political convenience. History will judge how they respond.