India’s Fighter Jet Dilemma: U.S. and Russia Battle for a $20 Billion Deal

Aero India, one of Asia’s premier air and defense exhibitions, never fails to generate excitement among arms traders and aviation enthusiasts. This year’s event, which concluded on February 14th, carried even greater significance. It marked the first time Russia’s cutting-edge Su-57 stealth fighter appeared in India—an occasion made even more dramatic by its side-by-side presence with America’s formidable F-35.

Adding to the geopolitical intensity was Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Washington, coinciding with the air show. On February 13th, Modi met with President Donald Trump, where the two leaders sought to smooth over tariff tensions and announce ambitious plans for trade and defense cooperation. In a striking revelation, Trump stated that they were "paving the way" for India to acquire the F-35, a jet currently restricted to U.S. allies.

A High-Stakes Contest in Bangalore

Against this backdrop, the competition in Bangalore became even fiercer. India, the world’s largest arms importer, has been steadily diversifying its suppliers, reducing its historic reliance on Russian military equipment. This year, the stakes were exceptionally high, given the ongoing war in Ukraine, Trump’s return to power, and an impending Indian order for 114 fighter jets—an acquisition valued at $20 billion.

While the American and Russian delegations avoided direct confrontation, their representatives did not shy away from undermining each other’s offerings. After the Su-57’s aerobatic display, a Russian delegate dismissed the F-35’s maneuverability, pointing out that it only performed a straightforward flypast. He also claimed that the Su-57 was "battle-proven" in Ukraine, whereas America’s fighter had only seen action against lightly armed terrorist groups.

The American response was equally scathing. U.S. officials countered that Ukraine lacked a formidable air force, rendering Russia’s claims about the Su-57’s combat effectiveness dubious. They also highlighted the underperformance of several Russian weapon systems in Ukraine. Furthermore, they expressed confidence that India would continue deepening its defense ties with the U.S.—a trend that accelerated after the deadly India-China border clash in 2020.

The Path to a Potential Fighter Jet Deal

A potential fighter jet deal would mark a major milestone in Indo-U.S. defense cooperation. While India has increased purchases of American military hardware—including helicopters, transport aircraft, and drones—it has thus far resisted buying American fighter jets. The reluctance stems from concerns about long-term dependence on a complex U.S. technological ecosystem. Instead, India has historically favored Russian aircraft, with its latest fighter jet acquisition being 36 French Rafales in 2016.

However, Trump’s unexpected F-35 offer stirred mixed reactions among American and Indian officials. Many in India remain cautious about over-reliance on U.S. weaponry due to cost concerns and a desire to maintain strategic autonomy. Consequently, India and the U.S. have recently prioritized joint arms production—an approach that aligns with Modi’s "Make in India" initiative, aimed at boosting domestic manufacturing and job creation.

During their talks, Trump and Modi agreed to explore "new procurements and co-production arrangements" for anti-tank missiles and infantry combat vehicles. They also welcomed agreements to co-produce anti-drone and anti-submarine systems. However, concerns lingered that such efforts could conflict with Trump’s push to reduce India’s trade surplus and prioritize American jobs.

The 114-Fighter Tender and India’s Tough Choices

India’s most anticipated fighter jet deal is the 114-aircraft tender, first announced in 2018. With bidding expected to commence in early 2025, the competition includes U.S. aerospace giants Boeing and Lockheed Martin, France’s Dassault, Sweden’s Saab, and Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation.

New Delhi has long indicated that it seeks cost-effective, fourth-generation fighters to replace aging aircraft and address its shortfall of roughly 200 jets. The expectation is that most, if not all, components of these new fighters will be manufactured in India. Given these priorities, expensive fifth-generation fighters like the F-35—despite their stealth technology—have not been a primary focus.

Additionally, America’s closest allies, who co-developed the F-35, may resist sharing its sensitive technology with India. India itself is developing its own fifth-generation fighter, further complicating matters. Consequently, Lockheed Martin has pitched an upgraded version of the F-16, offering significant local production. Meanwhile, Boeing is banking on an advanced variant of the F-15, also with extensive Indian manufacturing.

Yet, some Indian Air Force officials are growing frustrated with the slow pace of procurement. They point to China’s rapid progress, having already deployed nearly 200 fifth-generation fighters while offering 40 to Pakistan, India’s longtime adversary. This has sparked discussions within India’s defense establishment about revising the 114-jet plan in favor of acquiring a smaller number of advanced stealth fighters.

Russia’s Counteroffer and the Road Ahead

Russia, sensing an opportunity, is aggressively lobbying India to consider an alternative. Moscow’s offer includes technology-sharing and licensed production of the Su-57 in India—similar to the existing arrangement for Su-30 production. Russian representatives also claim that supply-chain disruptions caused by the Ukraine war will ease once hostilities subside. Additionally, they cast doubt on America’s reliability, citing recent delays in the delivery of U.S.-made engines for India’s indigenous fighter jets.

While it remains unclear how committed Modi is to Trump’s F-35 proposal, their joint statement acknowledged that the U.S. is reviewing its policy on supplying fifth-generation fighters to India. A senior Indian official later clarified that the offer remains a proposal and would undergo India’s standard procurement process, which has yet to begin.

Even so, fighter jet acquisitions are clearly on both leaders’ radar. With India facing a strategic crossroads in its defense procurement, expect a high-stakes diplomatic dance in the months ahead.