Merz Secures Victory in a Fractured Election and Calls for European Autonomy

As the final votes were counted in Germany’s election, three key takeaways emerged. First, the opposition Christian Democrats (CDU), along with their Bavarian counterpart, the Christian Social Union (CSU), secured a clear, albeit underwhelming, victory with 29% of the vote. This outcome positions their candidate, Friedrich Merz, to replace Olaf Scholz as chancellor—pending complex coalition negotiations. Second, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) achieved its best-ever result, capturing 21% of the vote and doubling its representation in the Bundestag. The party dominated in its eastern strongholds, prompting co-leader Alice Weidel to hail the result as a “historic success.” Third, voter turnout was extraordinary. With 83% of eligible Germans casting a ballot, the election saw the highest participation since reunification 35 years ago.

Beyond these headlines, the situation grew increasingly complicated. Merz hopes to form a coalition with Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD), who suffered their worst defeat in history, sinking to just 16%. However, under Germany’s electoral rules, the ability to form a coalition hinged on whether the newly established left-conservative Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) cleared the 5% threshold to enter parliament. It fell just short—by a mere three-one-hundredths of a percentage point. This outcome grants CDU/CSU and SPD a slim majority, likely just 13 seats, and spares them from having to include the Greens in government. Yet, the prospect of an uneasy, ideologically messy coalition is precisely what Merz had hoped to avoid as he aims to restore public confidence in politics.

Even a CDU-SPD coalition will be far from smooth. After a particularly acrimonious campaign by German standards, trust between the two parties is scarce. One SPD lawmaker bluntly admitted that the idea of another grand coalition made her “feel like gagging.” Merz further alienated potential allies on the eve of the election by lashing out at “green and left-wing idiots,” questioning their intelligence. A more substantive sticking point is immigration policy. Merz insists that his proposals—including permanent border controls and the rejection of asylum seekers—are non-negotiable. Yet, both the SPD and Greens argue that such measures would violate domestic and European law, setting the stage for a bitter standoff.

Another challenge will be Germany’s rigid fiscal policy. The country’s constitutional debt brake severely limits deficit spending, yet its infrastructure, defense capabilities, and economic competitiveness demand massive investments. Germany must secure at least €30 billion ($31 billion) annually from 2028 just to meet NATO’s 2% of GDP defense spending target once a temporary special fund runs dry. Merz’s proposed budget cuts fall far short of meeting these financial demands, prompting him to signal a willingness to ease the debt brake—an unprecedented move for a CDU leader, as fiscal discipline has long been a core tenet of the party.

However, amending the debt brake requires a two-thirds parliamentary majority, necessitating support from the Greens and Die Linke, the hard-left party that saw a last-minute surge among young voters, reaching 9%. Die Linke, a staunchly “pro-peace” party, would likely demand significant concessions in return, potentially provoking a rebellion within Merz’s ranks, where many conservatives staunchly oppose both leftists and deficit spending.

For those who hoped for political clarity in Germany, the election results offer little comfort. The CDU/CSU’s victory is largely a reflection of widespread dissatisfaction with the outgoing government rather than an overwhelming endorsement of Merz. The party had once aimed for over 35% of the vote but ultimately delivered its second-worst result in history. This may reignite internal doubts about Merz’s leadership, particularly after he controversially accepted AfD votes to pass anti-immigration motions in the Bundestag last month. His personal approval ratings remain weak.

Meanwhile, the SPD’s disastrous showing will trigger deep introspection and a leadership overhaul. Scholz’s departure is imminent, with party co-leader Lars Klingbeil emerging as the figure to watch. “It’s a bitter result, and it hurts,” admitted Alexander Schweitzer, the SPD’s minister-president of Rhineland-Palatinate. The only clear winners of the election are AfD and Die Linke—two fringe parties with no realistic path to government.

Ordinarily, such a fractured result would lead to prolonged coalition negotiations. But this time, geopolitical upheaval is accelerating the timeline. Donald Trump’s impact on Ukraine policy has thrown European diplomacy into disarray, pushing leaders into urgent discussions. Just one minute after German polls closed, European Council President António Costa announced a special EU summit for March 6 to address Ukraine and European security. Scholz, still chancellor until a successor is confirmed, will attend the meeting but must coordinate closely with Merz, who will soon take the helm.

Merz appears acutely aware that shifting geopolitical realities leave no room for delay. Shortly after his victory, he floated the idea of an “independent European defense capability” to replace NATO and stressed the urgency of strengthening Europe to achieve independence from the United States. Before the election, he had even suggested nuclear cooperation with France or Britain as an alternative to the American nuclear umbrella, and informal discussions with French officials have already begun. Such statements are remarkable from a politician deeply rooted in the CDU’s traditionally pro-Atlantic stance. But these are extraordinary times, and Merz is signaling that he intends to lead Germany into a new, more self-reliant era.