Congo's Struggle: Rebel Group and Rwanda Gain Control Over Eastern Provinces

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has long faced challenges maintaining control over its vast eastern provinces, and recent developments have starkly highlighted the Congolese state’s diminishing authority in the region. The distance between Kinshasa, the nation’s capital, and the eastern provinces—South Kivu, North Kivu, and Ituri—is over 1,500 kilometers, a geographical barrier that has contributed to the state’s inability to establish a lasting presence. Now, the ongoing advance of the M23 rebel group, which is widely backed by Rwanda, is exacerbating the government’s struggles. This shift could mark the beginning of a third phase in the decades-long series of conflicts that have plagued the region since the 1990s.

On February 16, M23 fighters, armed with machine guns and grenade launchers, marched triumphantly through the streets of Bukavu, the second-largest city in eastern Congo. The Congolese army, clearly outmatched and demoralized, had retreated without resistance. Rebel fighters posed for selfies in the city’s main square, signaling the fall of South Kivu’s capital. This came just three weeks after M23 seized Goma, the largest city in the region and the capital of North Kivu, with the help of Rwandan forces.

Despite Western and African condemnation of its actions, M23’s unilateral ceasefire—declared after taking Goma—lasted only briefly. Within days, the group advanced into South Kivu, reportedly with the support of Rwanda’s advanced military drones, including Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2s, according to Western officials. These drones have reportedly played a critical role in giving M23 an upper hand in battles across the region.

With a territory 1/90th the size of Congo, Rwanda’s influence now extends across the entirety of Lake Kivu, a strategic body of water bordering both nations. The loss of key territories in eastern Congo, including the vital airport at Kavumu near Bukavu, has dealt a severe blow to the Congolese military. Thousands of Congolese troops, along with forces from its regional ally, Burundi, have abandoned the airport, effectively severing a critical supply line. "Soldiers are leaving on foot, officers are escaping by boat," said a Bukavu-based researcher, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "There's no military logistics, no resupply."

Back in Kinshasa, the mood is grim. International sanctions that Congo has long demanded against Rwanda have yet to materialize, and recent summits involving African leaders have failed to yield any significant change on the ground. President Félix Tshisekedi, who has not addressed the nation since January 29, had promised a “vigorous and coordinated response” to the situation. However, the situation on the ground has only worsened. Meanwhile, Western embassies in Kinshasa, including those of the United States and the United Kingdom, have evacuated the majority of their staff, anticipating further deterioration of security in the capital.

To further compound the crisis, Ugandan troops have been reported in Bunia, the capital of Ituri province, as of February 18. The presence of Ugandan forces has raised questions about their intentions. While Uganda’s government has been authorized by President Tshisekedi to assist in counterterrorism efforts in Congo—particularly in rooting out jihadist groups—the situation is more complex. Before the arrival of Ugandan troops in Bunia, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, the son of Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni, publicly stated his intention to "attack" the city, causing alarm among local residents and Western officials alike. Kainerugaba, known for his erratic statements, had previously made headlines for bizarre threats, such as pledging to conquer Rome if Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni refused his offer of 100 cows as a bride price.

With Rwanda and M23 consolidating their hold over eastern Congo, there is growing concern that Uganda may seek to assert its own interests in the region. This scenario raises the specter of a repeat of the Second Congo War (1998-2003), when Rwanda and Uganda deployed their militaries to Congo, each vying for control over resources and political influence. The devastating consequences for Congolese civilians during that conflict have left deep scars, and the fear of history repeating itself is palpable.

As tensions mount in Bunia, one local resident observed that armed groups in the area are "on maximum alert, waiting for when the provocations start." His hope for peace seems increasingly unlikely, as the region’s volatile mix of local militias, regional powers, and international actors threatens to plunge eastern Congo back into chaos. The future remains uncertain, but for now, the people of the region can only brace for what may be the next chapter in a long history of conflict.