China’s Gender Imbalance: Social, Economic, and Demographic Consequences

By 2027, Millions of Chinese Men May Face a Marriage Crisis Due to Gender Imbalance

“Of course, I want to get married,” says Fu, a 36-year-old lorry driver from Yiyang, a remote county in Jiangxi province. Once a migrant worker, he returned home to care for his aging parents, who are eager for him to settle down. But finding a bride has proven nearly impossible. “There are too few women,” he laments. Most of the eligible women in his village are already married or have left for jobs in the city.

Fu is not alone. Men like him are often referred to as guang gun — “bare branches” — a term describing those who are unable to start families. Their numbers have been rising for over a decade, but the scale of the issue is only now becoming clear.

A Worsening Demographic Imbalance

Analysis of data from the United Nations’ World Population Prospects and China’s 2020 census reveals that by 2027, the sex ratio among marriageable-age adults will peak at 119 men for every 100 women. This cohort includes men aged 23-37 and women aged 22-36—the age range in which 80% of marriages occur. This imbalance is set to persist for decades. To put this into perspective, the ratio was just 105 in 2012.

By 2027, there will be 22.5 million more men than women in these age groups—the largest recorded male surplus in any country. The consequences are already visible. Between 2006 and 2022, the proportion of unmarried men aged 25-39 in China skyrocketed from 13% to 30%, a worrying trend for the country’s leadership.

How Did This Happen?

The roots of the crisis date back to the 1980s, when affordable ultrasound technology became widely available across Asia. With a strong cultural preference for sons, many parents resorted to sex-selective abortions. This phenomenon was not unique to China: in South Korea, the sex ratio at birth peaked at 117 in 1994 before dropping to 106 by 2012. In India, the ratio stood at 109 in 2010 and had improved to 107 by 2024. By contrast, developed nations such as the United States and Britain have maintained a more balanced ratio of around 105.

China’s demographic policies exacerbated the problem. The 1973 “Later, Longer, Fewer” campaign aimed at curbing population growth was followed in 1979 by the draconian one-child policy. With only one chance to have a child, many couples chose to ensure that child was male. As a result, China suffered the world’s most severe gender imbalance at birth.

Migration and Changing Social Norms

Today, internal migration is compounding the problem. The 2020 census shows that in urban areas, the sex ratio among young adults is 106 men per 100 women, while in rural areas, it reaches 120. Young rural women frequently move to cities, often marrying urban men with higher incomes. At the same time, many well-educated urban women are choosing to delay marriage or forgo it entirely, further shrinking the dating pool for men like Fu.

The decline in marriage rates reflects these shifts. In 2024, the number of registered marriages in China fell by 20% compared to the previous year, reaching just 6.1 million—less than half the number recorded in 2013 and the lowest since the 1980s.

The Rising Costs of Marriage

As the number of women dwindles, their value in the marriage market has soared. Bride prices—payments made by the groom’s family to the bride’s—have skyrocketed. A survey in Liaoning province found that in rural areas, bride prices increased from 68,000 yuan ($9,000) in 2016 to 176,000 yuan ($24,000) by 2020, adjusted for inflation. Another study across 11 provinces revealed that the total cost of marriage, including housing and matchmaking fees, was 7.6 times higher after 2010 than before 2000.

The Dark Side of the Gender Imbalance

The scarcity of women has fueled a rise in human trafficking. Between July and December 2018, Chinese authorities, in collaboration with law enforcement agencies from Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, and Thailand, rescued 1,130 foreign women who had been trafficked into China for forced marriages.

The Chinese Communist Party is acutely aware of the potential social instability caused by millions of unmarried men. Historically, large populations of disaffected, single men have been linked to unrest, and China’s leadership is keen to avoid such scenarios.

A Slow Path to Balance

Despite the grim outlook, there are signs of long-term improvement. Since peaking in the mid-2000s, China’s sex ratio at birth has steadily declined, thanks in part to shifting cultural norms and the economic empowerment of women. As traditional preferences for sons weaken, future generations may see a more balanced gender ratio. However, this offers little solace to today’s rural bachelors, who face an increasingly uphill battle in their search for a spouse.